States That Will Benefit Most From Trump Accounts – 2025 Study

American babies are now eligible to receive a $1,000 initial investment in a “Trump account” per new tax legislation. The money – which will be tied to the stock market, can be added to and cannot be used until the child turns 18 – gives each child some capability to fund certain activities as they enter adulthood, such as paying for college or purchasing a home. The policy is meant to incentivize families across the U.S., lowering the financial burden of long-term savings for parents and widening the options available for American children.

With this in mind, SmartAsset examined the current fertility and replacement rates across the U.S. states to determine which states are set to have the most children over the coming years. 

Key Findings

• Utah and Colorado are set to have the highest replacement rates. Utah has the highest prevalence of young women, with 11.73% of the population being women aged 20 to 34. The fertility rate for this cohort in Utah is 97 births per 1,000, making for 34,119 annual births. Meanwhile, 11.1% of the population are women aged 20 to 34 in Colorado, with 79 births per 1,000 and an annual projection of 54,758 births.
• These northeastern states have the fewest young women. Maine and Vermont have the lowest frequency of women aged 20 to 34, at 8.9% and 9.1% of the respective populations. The fertility rate among these women is also relatively low at 58 births per 1,000 young women in Maine and 64 per 1,000 in Vermont.
• These low-population states have the highest fertility rates. Young women in Alaska and Wyoming have the most children, with 122 births per 1,000 women aged 20 to 34 in Alaska and 118 births per 1,000 in Wyoming. Mississippi (116 per 1,000); Nebraska (110); and North Dakota (110) also have particularly high fertility rates.
• Young women in Rhode Island have the fewest babies. Despite Rhode Island having slightly more young women than average at 10.3% of its population, there are only 47 births per 1,000 women aged 20 to 34. The average fertility rate across all states is 85 births per 1,000 young women.
• Four states produce 33% of American babies. California, Texas, Florida, and New York produce 33.1% of babies born, despite lower than average fertility rates in each of the four highest-population states. Together, they are projected to contribute 976,304 new babies this year.

Population Replacement Rates and Fertility by State

States are ranked according to the frequency of women aged 20 to 34 in the state, which coincides with the ranking for projected population replacement rates for 2025.

1. Utah

• Projected babies born in one year: 34,119
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00973
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 11.73%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 97
• Number of young women: 411,070

2. Colorado

• Projected babies born in one year: 54,758
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00919
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 11.07%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 79
• Number of young women: 659,739

3. North Dakota

• Projected babies born in one year: 7,131
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00895
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.79%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 110
• Number of young women: 85,918

4. Texas

• Projected babies born in one year: 278,232
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00889
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.71%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 84
• Number of young women: 3,352,189

5. Massachusetts

• Projected babies born in one year: 63,418
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00888
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.71%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 59
• Number of young women: 764,069

6. Washington

• Projected babies born in one year: 70,008
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00879
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.60%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 74
• Number of young women: 843,468

7. California

• Projected babies born in one year: 344,395
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00873
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.52%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 65
• Number of young women: 4,149,333

8. New York

• Projected babies born in one year: 172,797
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00869
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.48%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 63
• Number of young women: 2,081,895

9. Georgia

• Projected babies born in one year: 97,122
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00868
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.47%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 86
• Number of young women: 1,170,142

10. Alaska

• Projected babies born in one year: 6,426
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00868
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.46%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 122
• Number of young women: 77,426

11. Tennessee

• Projected babies born in one year: 62,290
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00861
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.38%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 84
• Number of young women: 750,488

12. Arizona

• Projected babies born in one year: 65,206
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00859
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.36%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 74
• Number of young women: 785,619

13. Rhode Island

• Projected babies born in one year: 9,551
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00858
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.35%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 47
• Number of young women: 115,078

14. North Carolina

• Projected babies born in one year: 94,761
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00857
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.34%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 85
• Number of young women: 1,141,699

15. Illinois

• Projected babies born in one year: 108,268
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00851
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.26%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 72
• Number of young women: 1,304,429

16. Indiana

• Projected babies born in one year: 58,520
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00845
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.18%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 87
• Number of young women: 705,055

17. Oklahoma

• Projected babies born in one year: 34,549
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00843
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.16%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 98
• Number of young women: 416,251

18. Michigan

• Projected babies born in one year: 84,608
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00834
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.05%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 84
• Number of young women: 1,019,373

19. Kansas

• Projected babies born in one year: 24,778
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00834
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.05%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 102
• Number of young women: 298,534

20. Missouri

• Projected babies born in one year: 52,014
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00832
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.03%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 86
• Number of young women: 626,671

21. Nevada

• Projected babies born in one year: 27,188
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00832
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.03%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 74
• Number of young women: 327,564

22. Nebraska

• Projected babies born in one year: 16,680
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00831
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 10.02%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 110
• Number of young women: 200,961

23. Virginia

• Projected babies born in one year: 73,022
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00828
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.98%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 76
• Number of young women: 879,788

24. Idaho

• Projected babies born in one year: 16,537
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00826
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.95%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 99
• Number of young women: 199,235

25. Oregon

• Projected babies born in one year: 35,188
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00823
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.92%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 74
• Number of young women: 423,949

26. Alabama

• Projected babies born in one year: 42,365
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00821
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.90%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 93
• Number of young women: 510,417

27. Kentucky

• Projected babies born in one year: 37,683
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00821
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.89%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 100
• Number of young women: 454,008

28. Louisiana

• Projected babies born in one year: 37,731
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00820
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.89%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 103
• Number of young women: 454,588

29. Ohio

• Projected babies born in one year: 97,391
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00819
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.87%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 91
• Number of young women: 1,173,384

30. New Mexico

• Projected babies born in one year: 17,435
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00818
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.86%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 82
• Number of young women: 210,062

31. Arkansas

• Projected babies born in one year: 25,154
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00814
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.81%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 108
• Number of young women: 303,058

32. Iowa

• Projected babies born in one year: 26,390
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00814
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.81%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 96
• Number of young women: 317,952

33. Connecticut

• Projected babies born in one year: 29,915
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00814
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.81%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 72
• Number of young women: 360,427

34. Mississippi

• Projected babies born in one year: 23,909
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00812
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.79%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 116
• Number of young women: 288,062

35. Maryland

• Projected babies born in one year: 50,618
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00808
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.74%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 74
• Number of young women: 609,850

36. Wisconsin

• Projected babies born in one year: 48,031
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00805
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.71%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 85
• Number of young women: 578,686

37. South Carolina

• Projected babies born in one year: 44,076
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00804
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.69%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 90
• Number of young women: 531,034

38. New Jersey

• Projected babies born in one year: 76,381
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00803
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.69%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 74
• Number of young women: 920,253

39. Minnesota

• Projected babies born in one year: 46,316
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00799
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.63%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 89
• Number of young women: 558,024

40. Pennsylvania

• Projected babies born in one year: 104,399
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00798
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.62%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 76
• Number of young women: 1,257,821

41. Delaware

• Projected babies born in one year: 8,212
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00780
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.41%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 82
• Number of young women: 98,941

42. Montana

• Projected babies born in one year: 8,862
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00779
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.39%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 83
• Number of young women: 106,774

43. Hawaii

• Projected babies born in one year: 11,216
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00775
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.34%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 94
• Number of young women: 135,131

44. Florida

• Projected babies born in one year: 180,880
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00773
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.32%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 71
• Number of young women: 2,179,281

45. New Hampshire

• Projected babies born in one year: 10,856
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00770
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.28%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 77
• Number of young women: 130,791

46. South Dakota

• Projected babies born in one year: 7,080
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00765
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.22%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 92
• Number of young women: 85,297

47. Wyoming

• Projected babies born in one year: 4,491
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00764
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.21%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 118
• Number of young women: 54,110

48. West Virginia

• Projected babies born in one year: 13,400
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00757
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.12%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 78
• Number of young women: 161,451

49. Vermont

• Projected babies born in one year: 4,884
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00753
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 9.07%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 64
• Number of young women: 58,848

50. Maine

• Projected babies born in one year: 10,436
• Projected babies born per capita in 2025: 0.00742
• Young women as a percentage of total population: 8.95%
• Births per 1,000 young women: 58
• Number of young women: 125,734

Data and Methodology

States are ranked based on the percentage of the population made up of women aged 20 to 34. The number of women aged 20 to 34 is compared to the statewide fertility rate in that age range to project the number of babies born per year. Data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau 1-Year American Community Survey for 2024.

Questions about this study? Contact us at press@smartasset.com

Photo credit: ©iStock.com/nd3000